By Cole Gallagher / August 30, 2026
US Open 2026 · Men’s Singles First Round · Tuesday, Sept 1 · USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, NY · Hard Court
🎾 Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego 🎾
The first round runs across three days. Court and start time are set by the daily order of play.
Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal handed the No. 1 seed to Alexander Zverev, and the German begins his campaign against Italy’s Lorenzo Sonego. Zverev arrives in New York in genuinely new territory: he is no longer the best player never to have won a major, having finally broken through at Roland-Garros earlier this season. Compare the books first in our top betting sites guide.
Odds Comparison
Total Games (Over/Under)
Correct Score in Sets
Player Analysis
Alexander Zverev
Flushing Meadows is where Zverev came closest and fell hardest. He led Dominic Thiem by two sets in the 2020 final before losing in a fifth-set tie-break, and years of near misses followed. Roland-Garros this season closed that chapter, and the interesting question now is whether a first major unlocks a second.
The toolkit has never been the problem. His first serve is among the most imposing in the sport, his two-handed backhand is one of the best in the men’s game, and his movement is remarkable for a player of his height. Sinner’s absence has also handed him what looks on paper like the kinder route to the final, with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz his likeliest obstacles in the later rounds rather than Alcaraz or Djokovic.
Key Storyline: The new top seed and a first-time major champion, on the court where his worst Grand Slam defeat happened
Lorenzo Sonego
Sonego is a live underdog on a hard court. His first serve produces free points, his forehand becomes genuinely dangerous when he gets court position inside the baseline, and he has enough Grand Slam experience not to be overawed by the occasion or the opponent.
The problem is the head-to-head. Zverev leads their ATP series and has repeatedly found ways to neutralise Sonego’s attacking game, which is a meaningful tactical advantage in a first-round match where the favourite already knows the answers.
Key Storyline: A dangerous hard-court server who has not solved Zverev in their previous meetings
Key Betting Angles
The first tactical battle is Zverev’s return against the Sonego serve. If the German puts returns deep consistently, Sonego cannot play the quick first-strike points that make him competitive, and the match becomes a baseline exchange the Italian cannot win over five sets.
That is also why the games total is more interesting than the match winner. Sonego holding serve well enough to force tie-breaks while still losing is a plausible shape for this match, and a set handicap on the favourite is riskier than the price will suggest.
Our Prediction
Cole’s Pick: Alexander Zverev to win in four sets
Sonego’s serve and aggression should be good enough for a set, particularly if he starts fast and gets the crowd interested. But Zverev has the head-to-head, the superior baseline game and a first Grand Slam title behind him, and over five sets the gap in consistency decides it. Back the winner, take the over, and skip the straight-sets line.
Confidence: high on the match winner, medium on the four-set scoreline
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Cole Gallagher covers soccer betting for WorldCupBetting.ca, specialising in match predictions, odds analysis and tournament futures. Based in Toronto, he has followed the Canadian men’s national team since their 2022 qualifying campaign and brings a line-shopping, data-first approach to every pick.