By Cole Gallagher / July 12, 2026
Semi-Final · Jul 14, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
🇫🇷 France vs Spain 🇪🇸
Odds at Betovo
France vs Spain is set for Tuesday, July 14 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, with a 3:00 PM ET kickoff. France eased past Morocco 2-0 in the quarter-finals on July 9, Kylian MbappĂ© and Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© scoring either side of the hour mark in Boston. Spain needed a Mikel Merino strike in the 88th minute to see off Belgium 2-1 in Los Angeles a day later, after Fabián Ruiz’s early second-half opener was cancelled out by Charles De Ketelaere. Both sides have won all three of their knockout matches so far without much room to spare, and the winner books a spot in the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | France | Draw | Spain |
| Betovo | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Zoccer | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Sports Interaction | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Tonybet | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Betway | 2.18 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
Goals Market
Over 2.5 Goals 2.05 · Under 2.5 Goals 1.80
Team to Advance
France 1.55 · Spain 2.35
Team Analysis
France
France’s route to the semi-finals has been the most emphatic of the four remaining sides. They finished top of Group I with a maximum nine points, including a 4-1 win over Norway built on an Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ© hat-trick, before beating Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 and Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16 (MbappĂ© pen, 70′). The quarter-final win over Morocco was the most complete performance yet, MbappĂ© and DembĂ©lĂ© combining for both goals in a 2-0 win that was rarely in doubt.
MbappĂ©’s tournament total now stands at eight goals, level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race, and he’ll fancy his chances of pulling clear against a Spain defence that has occasionally looked open in behind.
Likely formation: 4-3-3
Spain
Spain won Group H comfortably with seven points, though they were held to a goalless draw by Cabo Verde in their opener before beating Saudi Arabia 4-0 and Uruguay 1-0. The knockout rounds have been tighter: a 3-0 win over Austria in the Round of 32, a 1-0 win over Portugal in the Round of 16 (Merino, 90+1′), and another one-goal win over Belgium in the quarter-finals.
Three of Spain’s last four knockout wins have come by a single goal, and Mikel Merino has now scored the winner in back-to-back matches. It’s a team that has found a way to grind out results rather than overwhelm opponents, which could make this a tighter game than the raw quality on the pitch suggests.
Likely formation: 4-3-3
Key Betting Angles
France have found the net in every match they’ve played this tournament. Spain, by contrast, have failed to score more than once in three of their last four matches. If that pattern holds, backing under 2.5 goals looks like better value than backing a wide France win.
MbappĂ© and Messi being tied atop the Golden Boot race adds an extra incentive for MbappĂ© to push forward at every opportunity, which could open up space for Spain to counter given how high France’s full-backs tend to play.
We update our full slate of semi-final coverage, schedule notes, and outright markets over on the world cup betting homepage as each matchup gets confirmed, so check there before locking in a wager this week.
Spain haven’t lost a knockout match by more than a goal all tournament, and their disciplined shape makes them a live alternative in the “advance” market even as underdogs on paper.
Our Prediction
Cole’s Pick: France to win, under 2.5 goals
France have the more dangerous attack and the head-to-head edge on paper, and MbappĂ©’s form makes them the right side to back to reach the final. But Spain’s knockout results have all been tight, low-scoring affairs, and there’s no reason to expect that changes here.
A repeat of Spain’s pattern – one goal, disciplined defending, a chance late – would suit their game plan against a France side that has occasionally been caught out in behind their full-backs. We’re leaning French, but not by a wide margin.
Confidence on France to win: medium. Confidence on this being a low-scoring match: medium-high.
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Cole Gallagher covers soccer betting for WorldCupBetting.ca, specialising in match predictions, odds analysis and tournament futures. Based in Toronto, he has followed the Canadian men’s national team since their 2022 qualifying campaign and brings a line-shopping, data-first approach to every pick.