Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction: US Open 2026 First Round

By Cole Gallagher / August 30, 2026

The draw has handed New York a throwback and a farewell in the same match. Stan Wawrinka, awarded a wild card at the last minute, plays the final Grand Slam of his career, and the opponent is Matteo Berrettini, the man who beat him at Wimbledon this summer in the match that ended the Swiss’s time at the All England Club. Compare the market in our top betting sites guide.

Odds Comparison

Player Analysis

Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka won this title in 2016, beating Novak Djokovic in the final, and he is a three-time Grand Slam champion and former world No. 3. This is his last major, and the wild card that made it possible only arrived at the last minute. That backdrop guarantees a crowd firmly on his side and a level of emotional investment that is difficult to price.

The tennis case is thinner. The one-handed backhand can still produce shots nobody else in the draw can hit, but sustaining that over five sets against a younger, bigger opponent is the problem, and it is the same problem that beat him at Wimbledon this summer.

Key Storyline: The 2016 champion plays the final Grand Slam of his career on a last-minute wild card

Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini already has the most relevant result in this matchup: he beat Wawrinka in the second round at Wimbledon this year, and it took four tie-breaks to do it. That scoreline cuts both ways. It confirms he can win the match, and it confirms that beating this particular opponent is not a comfortable afternoon.

On a hard court the Italian’s serve-and-forehand combination should be a cleaner weapon than it was on grass, where Wawrinka’s low-bouncing conditions gave the Swiss more chances to hang around. Berrettini’s task is to close out the tight sets he let drift at Wimbledon.

Key Storyline: Beat Wawrinka in a four-tie-break epic at Wimbledon this summer and now meets him again on a faster court

Key Betting Angles

The Wimbledon match is the whole story for the games total. Four tie-breaks between these two on grass is an extraordinary marker for how tight the margins get, and while a hard court should favour Berrettini more clearly, the over is the most defensible position in this match.

There is also a second-round incentive worth noting. The winner is likely to face Novak Djokovic, which for Wawrinka would be a rematch of the 2016 final he won. That storyline will not affect the tennis, but it will affect where the market money goes, and a sentimental price on the Swiss is a price worth fading rather than following.

Our Prediction

Cole’s Pick: Matteo Berrettini to win, over the total games line

Berrettini is the younger man, has the bigger serve, and already owns the most recent result between them. The counterweight is a New York crowd that will make this the loudest court on the grounds and an opponent with nothing left to lose. Expect Wawrinka to take a set and expect the match to run long. Take the Italian and take the over; the outright margin is where the trap is.

Confidence: medium-high on the match winner, high on the over

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Cole Gallagher

Cole Gallagher covers soccer betting for WorldCupBetting.ca, specialising in match predictions, odds analysis and tournament futures. Based in Toronto, he has followed the Canadian men’s national team since their 2022 qualifying campaign and brings a line-shopping, data-first approach to every pick.