By Cole Gallagher / September 3, 2026
US Open 2026 · Men’s Singles Third Round · Friday, September 4 · USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, NY · Hard Court
🎾 Denis Shapovalov vs Ben Shelton 🎾
Court and session are set by the daily order of play. Expect one of the two main show courts.
Denis Shapovalov has beaten a lot of very good players in New York. He has never beaten this one. The Richmond Hill left-hander is into the US Open third round for the second year running and is rewarded with Ben Shelton, the eighth seed, the American No. 1, and the man who has taken all four of their previous meetings. Compare the books before you back either side in our top betting sites guide.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Shapovalov | Shelton |
| Sports Interaction | Check Odds → | Check Odds → |
| Betovo | Check Odds → | Check Odds → |
| Bet365 | Check Odds → | Check Odds → |
| Tonybet | Check Odds → | Check Odds → |
| Betway | Check Odds → | Check Odds → |
Total Games (Over/Under)
Set Betting (Correct Score in Sets)
Player Analysis
Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov’s week has been the quiet story of the Canadian contingent. He opened by beating Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 to move to 6-0 in that head-to-head, then produced the most convincing performance of his tournament in beating Luca Van Assche 6-0, 6-4, 7-6(7). That was 50 winners and seven of nine break points converted, and the first set was his first Grand Slam bagel since the opening round here last year.
The one wobble in that match is worth logging honestly. Twice serving for the win at 5-1 in the third, he was broken back-to-back and had to save a set point at 4-5 before closing a tiebreak 9-7. That is the version of Shapovalov the market prices: a former US Open quarter-finalist with genuinely elite shot-making and a closing gear that comes and goes. He is 27, ranked in the high forties, and has reached the third round in New York in all but one of his previous trips.
Key Storyline: A former US Open quarter-finalist with 50 winners in his last match and an 0-4 record against Friday’s opponent
Ben Shelton
Shelton is the reason this section of the draw is where it is. The eighth seed won the Canadian Open in Montreal this summer, and with the world No. 1 absent through injury and Novak Djokovic already gone, he has become the most credible home hope of ending a long American drought at the majors. The crowd knows it, and he has been feeding off that.
Neither of his first two matches was tidy. He dropped the opening set to Tallon Griekspoor before winning 1-6, 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-2, then had to grind out a 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 7-5 win over Hubert Hurkacz — two four-setters, one of them decided in a tiebreak, and both of them long. That is 15 sets of tennis in his legs already, against a left-hander who has spent barely three hours less on court. His serve is the biggest weapon on this court, but the accumulated mileage is a legitimate variable in a best-of-five.
Key Storyline: The Montreal champion and American No. 1 has already survived two four-setters to get here
Key Betting Angles
The head-to-head is the cleanest number in this preview: Shelton leads it 4-0. Four matches is a real sample against a player of Shapovalov’s standard, and it points at a stylistic problem rather than bad luck. Shelton’s left-handed serve neutralises the advantage Shapovalov usually enjoys against right-handers, and his forehand is the bigger shot in a rally where both men are looking to end the point in three strokes.
That said, an 0-4 record does not usually price a player out of a competitive market, and this one shouldn’t either. Both men serve big, both are willing to miss, and neither is a natural attritional player — the shape of the match is going to be dictated by tiebreaks and by which serve stays hot longest. Shelton has already played two tiebreaks in six sets of tennis this week; Shapovalov won one 9-7. The total games market and the set betting are the more honest places to express a view here than the match winner.
One more angle for anyone building a section position: Shelton has spent longer on court than any of the leading seeds in this quarter, and there is a fourth round waiting immediately behind this match.
Our Prediction
Cole’s Pick: Ben Shelton to win in four sets
The seeding, the record and the crowd all sit on the American side, and 0-4 is 0-4. But the price on a straight-sets Shelton win looks short given he has needed four sets twice already and given Shapovalov has been the cleaner ball-striker of the two this week. Take Shelton to advance, take the Canadian to win a set, and treat the total games line as the better of the two side bets.
Confidence: medium-high on the match winner, medium on the four-set scoreline
Best Bets
Latest Predictions
- Canadians at the US Open 2026: Auger-Aliassime Leads the Charge
- Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov Prediction: US Open 2026 Second Round
- Fernandez vs Pegula Prediction: US Open 2026 Third Round
19+. Gambling can be addictive. If you or someone you know needs support, visit ProblemGambling.ca or call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600.
Cole Gallagher covers soccer betting for WorldCupBetting.ca, specialising in match predictions, odds analysis and tournament futures. Based in Toronto, he has followed the Canadian men’s national team since their 2022 qualifying campaign and brings a line-shopping, data-first approach to every pick.